Signals

Info finance is a field that “begins with the piece of information you want to uncover and deliberately designs a market to extract that information optimally.” Our platform uses probability-based dynamic pricing to go beyond observing market signals and transform crowd sentiment into concrete, quantitative insights.

When multiple participants predict a specific price range for Bitcoin, the probability for that range increases, and corresponding movements in market prices result in a real-time market consensus. Users who make accurate predictions are rewarded from a shared pool, naturally encouraging precise forecasting and enhancing data quality. The information gathered in this process captures the market’s broader sentiment as an objective and reliable indicator, providing valuable insights for investment decisions, strategic planning, and beyond.

By contrast, traditional prediction markets often rely on binary (“yes/no”) outcomes, which can be limiting when trying to forecast continuous values like asset prices. Our platform addresses this limitation through a multi-outcome structure that lets users predict specific BTC price ranges, drawing out more refined, detailed insights from the crowd. As a result, we move beyond a simple “will it go up or down?” model, achieving segmented market consensus in real time, incentivizing accurate predictions through a rewarding system, and ultimately turning crowd sentiment into meaningful quantitative insights.

1. Architecture & Pricing Method

1-1. Interval-Based Forecasting

✔️ The BTC price range is segmented into clearly defined intervals (e.g., $80,000–$81,000, $81,000–$82,000).

✔️ Users can easily select and purchase tickets (shares) for one or multiple intervals, simplifying the prediction process.

1-2. Probability Density-Based Pricing

✔️ Similar to how Polymarket assigns an 80-cent price to a 1-share purchase for an event assessed at 80% probability, our system prices tickets according to the probability density within each interval.

✔️ While Polymarket utilizes an order book structure, matching buy and sell orders directly, we implement our proprietary Automated Market Maker (AMM). This AMM model dynamically adjusts prices upward as participation in a specific interval increases, ensuring that the expected payout for tickets ultimately equals $1.

1. On-Chain Price Verification & Daily Settlement

2-1. Daily On-Chain Price Verification

✔️ Every day, the platform retrieves the closing BTC price from decentralized on-chain sources (e.g., Uniswap), providing transparent and trustworthy daily price confirmations.

2-2. Reward Claims

✔️ When the actual daily closing price falls within a specific interval, ticket holders for that interval can initiate transactions to claim their rewards.

1. Features & Advantages

3-1. Multiple Intervals in One Transaction

✔️ Users can conveniently select multiple intervals simultaneously, allowing easy, detailed forecasting.

3-2. Dynamic Probability Pricing

✔️ Increased participation dynamically adjusts interval prices in real-time, accurately capturing immediate shifts in market sentiment.

3-3. Enhanced Forecast Precision

✔️ Unlike conventional binary options, users can forecast across diverse intervals, providing finer-grained predictions.

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Conclusion

Our interval-based BTC prediction market leverages probability-density-based pricing and an innovative AMM model to dynamically adjust ticket prices. Users can precisely forecast Bitcoin’s price intervals, easily purchase relevant tickets, and directly claim rewards after daily price verification. This approach offers significantly greater precision and flexibility compared to traditional binary markets, delivering richer insights and more strategic forecasting opportunities.