Project Description Our platform offers a reimagined prediction market experience where users forecast fixed values for future events and earn rewards based on the divergence between their predictions and the actual outcome. Unlike binary models, where only correct predictions are rewarded, our system ensures proportional distribution, rewarding participants based on their prediction's accuracy.

How It Works Users enter fixed-value predictions for specific events, and once the event concludes, the system calculates rewards using a divergence-based model. The closer a user's prediction is to the outcome, the higher their reward. This approach ensures a fair, skill-based reward system, promoting analytical precision.

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Use Case Examples

1. Cryptocurrency Prices:

   • Users predict the price of Ethereum at the week's end. For example, if one predicts $2,100 and the actual price is $2,050, they earn more than someone predicting $1,950, as their prediction is closer to the truth.

2. Sports Statistics:

   • Forecast how many goals Lionel Messi will score in his next match. A prediction of 2 goals would yield a higher reward if Messi scores 3 compared to a prediction of 5 goals.

3. Social Media Engagement:

   • Predict the engagement score (based on likes, views, and followers) of a trending creator over a specific period. If the actual score is 1 million, a prediction of 950,000 will earn more than one of 850,000.

Core Features

• Non-Binary Reward Distribution: Proportional rewards ensure inclusivity and accuracy-based incentives.

• Diverse Market Scope: Users can engage across multiple domains—cryptocurrencies, sports stats, and social engagement.

• Secure and Transparent: Decentralized smart contracts handle all predictions, rewards, and transactions, ensuring trustless operations.

• User Accessibility: Simplified interfaces and flexible categories allow participants from varied interests to engage seamlessly.

By catering to diverse prediction categories and employing a fair reward system, this platform encourages strategic thinking while providing users with an engaging and equitable experience.

#The Spark Behind the Idea The concept for this platform stemmed from personal frustration. As a frequent predictor of cryptocurrency prices, I would invest significant time and effort analyzing trends. However, without sufficient capital to act on these predictions, or with the fear of binary loss in existing prediction markets, it felt like a waste of effort. The idea was born to create a system where users are rewarded not just for perfect predictions but also for proximity, ensuring everyone benefits from the pool relative to their accuracy. This encourages participation without complete loss.

Core Mechanisms

1. Proportional Reward Distribution:

   • Using precision-based, relative distribution formulas rooted in proven mathematical theories, our system ensures fair allocation of rewards. Predictions closer to the actual outcome earn higher payouts from the pool, while even far-off guesses secure a portion, albeit smaller.

2. Data Sourcing & Transparency: -Cryptocurrency Prices: Utilizing Chronicle Oracle and Pyth Network, we fetch decentralized and accurate price feeds to maintain integrity.

   • Social Media Engagement: Leveraging Oasis Protocol, we make HTTP API calls to aggregate social metrics (likes, views, and followers) from platforms like Twitter.
   • Sports Statistics: For real-time and historical sports data, we integrate APIs compatible with blockchain oracles for seamless feeds.

3. Blockchain Architecture:

   • Built on EVM-based smart contracts for flexibility and interoperability, our platform supports multi-chain setups. For specific use cases:

     • Flow Blockchain: Leveraged for its speed, low fees, and suitability for sports and fan club engagement.

     • Chiliz is perfectly aligned for fan-driven sports predictions.

   • Dynamic Wallets: Simplifies Web2 user onboarding, allowing users to transition into Web3 by signing up with minimal friction.

4. User Privacy & Security:

   • Morph and Inco provide enhanced privacy and security protocols, ensuring data protection and secure transactions.

Partner Technology Benefits

Chronicle Oracle and Pyth Network eliminate reliance on centralized feeds, ensuring transparent and immutable data for cryptocurrency price predictions.

• *Oasis Protocol extends our capabilities to gather and process social engagement data, bridging Web2 and Web3 seamlessly.
• Flow Blockchain and Chiliz allow category-specific optimizations, catering to sports and crypto enthusiasts alike.
• Dynamic Wallet provides a seamless entry for Web2 users into Web3, making onboarding frictionless.
• Morph and Inco bolster user confidence through strong privacy and security measures.

Noteworthy “Hacky” Elements

• A custom mechanism transforms traditional HTTP APIs into decentralized feeds using the Oasis Protocol, ensuring tamper-proof data even for non-blockchain sources like social media.
• The flexible architecture dynamically supports chain-agnostic predictions while retaining specific optimizations for user-friendly experiences.

This intricate combination of cutting-edge blockchain technologies and user-centric design ensures a practical, transparent, and rewarding experience for all participants.