Arcaid

Imagine a prediction market where you can never lose your investment, yet still earn rewards for being right—and where every trade automatically funds disaster relief NGOs.

The Core Innovation Our platform is a zero-loss prediction market powered by DeFi yield. Here's what makes it cool:

You Never Lose Your Principal Buy YES or NO tokens with USDC. Win or lose, you get your full investment back. Your funds earn yield on Aave V3 while the market runs—that yield powers everything.

NGOs Get Funded Automatically 60% of all generated yield goes directly to humanitarian organizations responding to disasters. They receive funding regardless of market outcomes, enabling faster response when crises strike

Winners Still Win 30% of yield is distributed to participants who predicted correctly, proportional to their stake. You risk nothing, but accurate predictions are rewarded.

AI Does Everything Our system detects disasters, matches them with NGOs, creates markets, verifies outcomes, and executes payouts—all automatically.

Dynamic Market Mechanics: Our system implements a sophisticated hybrid automated market maker (AMM) that combines the fairness of constant-sum pricing with the efficiency of token-weighted distribution. When you participate:

• You pay a dynamic price based on current market sentiment (starting at 0.50 USDC per token)
• The price moves based on supply and demand—the more people buy YES tokens, the more expensive they become
• Your tokens represent both your prediction and your stake in the outcome
• All funds flow into the treasury and are immediately bridged to Base Sepolia for Aave deployment

Yield Generation: While the market runs (typically 14-30 days), your USDC works for you. It's earning interest on Aave V3, one of the most trusted DeFi protocols. This yield becomes the source of all rewards and NGO funding. No one pays fees upfront, no one loses their deposit—the yield pays for everything.

Outcome Resolution: Based on the AI's findings, the market resolves to either YES or NO. The OutcomeOracle contract records this decision on-chain with complete transparency. The resolution is immutable—once recorded, it cannot be changed.

Seamless Settlement: Using Circle's infrastructure, payouts happen automatically:

Winners receive their principal + rewards directly to their Circle Wallets on Arc Losers receive their full principal refunded—they never lose money NGOs receive their allocation cross-chain to Base Sepolia (or any chain they prefer) via Circle's CCTP Bridge Everything happens programmatically—no manual transactions, no admin intervention, no delays

Arcaid is built with Circle and Arc at the center. All main app contracts (ProtocolRegistry, NGORegistry, MarketFactory, TreasuryVault, BridgeManager, PayoutExecutor, OutcomeOracle) live on Arc testnet, and we use Arc’s native USDC for deposits and in-contract logic. Circle Programmable Wallets (developer-controlled) are created for traders and NGOs via Circle’s APIs; those wallets hold USDC . Circle Gateway is how USDC actually moves in and out of our system. For participation, the flow is: the user’s Circle wallet is funded; our backend calls the Gateway to create a transfer from that wallet to the MarketFactory contract on Arc. Once the Gateway transfer is confirmed on-chain, our backend calls participateWithPreTransferredUSDC on MarketFactory, passing the user’s wallet address and amount; the contract then records the deposit in TreasuryVault and mints YES/NO outcome tokens to that wallet. So the Gateway is the only way USDC gets from Circle wallets into our Arc contracts for that flow. For NGO payouts, we use the Gateway (and/or CCTP when the recipient is on another chain) to send USDC from our payout infrastructure to the NGO’s Circle wallet, so they receive stable, programmable payouts without handling raw txns. Circle's Bridge Kit is used to bridge USDC from Arc to Base Sepolia so we can supply to Aave V3 and generate yield; that yield backs the zero-loss guarantee and funds NGO payouts.

The notable custom piece is our market logic. We use a hybrid AMM: constant-sum (YES + NO = 1) for fairness and token-weighted distribution for efficiency. Participation updates a dynamic price (starting at 0.50 USDC per token) from supply and demand; the contract mints outcome tokens and records everything in TreasuryVault and Market state so resolution and payouts are consistent. That design is what lets us promise principal return while running a real prediction market and routing yield to disaster relief.